Financial Projections

4-Year Financial Model
& Exit Strategy

Revenue projections, operating cash flow, and a clear path to capital return. Month-by-month financials across three scenarios, 4-year growth trajectory, and the refinance-based exit.

Revenue Ramp

Path to Profitability

Phase 1 launches with a 3-month ramp as infrastructure comes online and occupancy builds. Months 1–2 operate at a loss during ramp-up. The business reaches monthly profitability by Month 3 and stabilizes at full run-rate by Month 7. Below is the cumulative cash flow trajectory across all three scenarios.

Cumulative Net Cash Flow — Year 1
Monthly cumulative operating profit across the 12-month ramp
Cumulative Net Profit
Scenario Break-Even Month Year 1 Total Net Stabilized Monthly Net 4-Year Cumulative Net
Year 1 — Monthly Detail

Month-by-Month: How Your Capital Works

Months 1–3 are ramp-up as infrastructure comes online and occupancy builds. By Month 4, all six revenue streams are active. By Month 7, the business is at full run-rate. Toggle scenarios below to compare outcomes.

Monthly Revenue vs. Expenses — Year 1
Conservative Scenario
Revenue
Expenses
Net Profit
Month Revenue Expenses Net Profit Cumulative

Payroll Optimization — Historical vs. New Model

Operating the business before this raise taught us exactly which roles we need. We've restructured payroll from $37,210/mo to $23,000/mo — eliminating 6 cash roles, converting 2 to live-in trade positions, and replacing our marketing vendor with AI-driven Google Ads management under direct founder oversight. Net annual savings: $170,520.

Role Historical New Model Change
David — Chairman / Founder$0$4,000Added
GM — Lead Manager$6,500$4,000Reduced
House mom / overnight$1,500$0Trade
Admissions$500$0Eliminated
Head Nurse$3,000$3,000—
Ranch Operations$2,800$0Trade
Retreat Manager$4,000$0Eliminated
Accounting$500$500—
Retreat staff + chef$2,500$0Eliminated
Retreat staff$2,660$0Eliminated
Scheduling$2,250$0AI system
Marketing vendor$3,000$0AI-replaced
Head of Marketing$4,500$4,500—
Medical Director$3,500$2,000Reduced
7-Day Concierge/Housekeeping (2 staff)—$5,000New role
Monthly Total $37,210 $23,000 −$14,210
Annual Total $446,520 $276,000 −$170,520
AI-Powered Marketing Replaces $3K/mo Vendor
Instead of paying a marketing vendor $3,000/mo with opaque reporting and slow iteration, we run Google Ads through an AI-managed workflow with direct founder oversight. This gives us real-time visibility on every dollar of ad spend, daily data-driven optimization, and the ability for AI to adjust campaigns automatically based on conversion data — scaling without adding headcount.
4-Year Growth

How the Ecosystem Scales After Year 1

Phase 1 operations stabilize in Year 1. A subsequent $16M Series A funds the Dome Collective (Phase 2) — land acquisition and build-out. Phase 2 revenue begins Year 2 as domes come online. By Year 4, the full ecosystem is stabilized and ready for refinance.

Annual Net Profit — Years 1–4
Base case scenario · Phase 2 revenue begins Year 2
Phase 1 (Ranch + Within)
Phase 2 (Dome Collective)
Combined Net Profit
Year Phase 1 Rev Phase 2 Rev Total Rev Expenses Net Profit Cumulative
Exit Strategy

Year 4 Refinance & Valuation

Capital is returned through a debt refinance at Year 4 — not a sale, not an IPO. By Year 4, the ecosystem is fully stabilized, generating predictable cash flow, and valued on institutional lending metrics. All invested equity is returned while ownership is retained.

Capital Return Waterfall
Operating cash flow through Year 4 + lump-sum return at refinance
Refinance Mechanics — Full Capital Stack
Stabilized NOI drives appraised value · cash-out refinance returns all invested equity
Post-Refinance: Ongoing Cash Flow
Ownership is retained — the business keeps generating income after debt service

Refinance Assumptions

    Model Assumptions

    Key Assumptions & Methodology

    Phase 1 — AWKN Ranch + Within Center

    • Retreat House nightly rate: $349 (shared) – $499 (private) · 12 beds · 2-night minimum
    • Lodging Domes: 2 new residential domes · 6 beds total · $299/night
    • Yurts x2: $699/night each
    • HoneyComb Dome + Model Dome: $599/night each
    • Maloka Dome: $20K–$40K/mo venue rental + $12K–$18K/mo nightly lodging
    • Within Center: $16.5K–$33K/mo from outpatient ketamine therapy packages (does not scale with lodging occupancy)
    • AWKN Hosted Retreats: $20K–$75K/mo curated multi-day immersions
    • Monthly operating expenses: Year 1 ramps from $59K (M1) → $76K (M12) as ops mature, ~$67K Y1 average; Year 2+ steady state $63.3K–$76.3K
    • Admissions / Corporate Sales: $4,000/mo — first 5 months funded from capital raise ($20K)
    • Year 1 Lodging Occupancy Ramp: all bed inventory ramps from 15% (M1) → 40% (M12), averaging ~26.5% blended — honest cold-start curve, supported by AWKN Ranch's existing 4.9★ brand presence in Austin
    • Year 1 Other Streams Ramp: Maloka, venue rentals, and hosted retreats compound at 10% MoM, ending Year 1 at the low end of their respective ranges (Y1 average ~62.5% of low end)
    • Memberships: existing $2,500/mo baseline, compounds 10% MoM through Year 1 (M12 ~$7,133, Y1 average ~$4,455)
    • Year 2+ steady state: 40% lodging occupancy, all other streams enter their range bands
    • Annual growth rate: 5% (rate increases + occupancy optimization)

    Phase 2 — Dome Collective

    • 103 domes total: 50 Tier 1 ($2,022/mo) + 40 Tier 2 ($2,322/mo) + 13 STR ($299/night at 70% occ.)
    • Gross monthly revenue at full occupancy: $275,511
    • Estimated net monthly: ~$200,000
    • Year 2: 30% of domes operational (construction ramp)
    • Year 3: 80% operational
    • Year 4: 100% operational — stabilized for refinance
    • Annual growth rate: 3% (lease renewals + rate increases)
    • Series A ($16M) funds land acquisition ($10M) + build-out ($6M)

    Year 4 Refinance Exit

    • Refinance at Year 4 stabilized NOI using 8.5% cap rate
    • Loan-to-value (LTV): 65% on appraised value
    • Refinance proceeds used to return investor capital + profit distributions
    • Ownership retained post-refinance — ongoing cash flow continues

    General

    • All figures in USD. No inflation adjustment.
    • All income projections reflect a 10% reduction from original model estimates
    • Expense growth: 3% annually (staffing, utilities, maintenance)
    • No additional capital raises assumed beyond Phase 1 seed round (includes 5-month Admissions/Sales hire) and Series A ($16M)
    • Conservative scenario uses low-end revenue and high-end expenses throughout
    • Base case uses midpoint revenue and midpoint expenses
    • Strong scenario uses high-end revenue and low-end expenses